Emanuel Dutra

Postdoctoral Fellow


Instituto Dom Luiz
Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
Campo Grande, Edf. C8, Piso 3, Sala 8.3.01
1749-016 Lisboa
Phone: + 351 217 500 000

Site pessoal: Emanuel Dutra
Short CV

Areas of Scientific activity

Land Surface Processes, Large Scale Hydrology, Land Surface Drivers, Drought Monitoring and Forecasting



Russo A., Gouveia C.M., Dutra E., Soares P.M.M., Páscoa P., Trigo R.M. (2019) The synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, 17 January 2019, 014011. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf09e


Carrão H, Naumann G, Dutra E, Lavaysse C, Barbosa P (2018) Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System. Open Access Climate 2018, 6(2), 48,

Dirmeyer PA, Chen L, Wu J, Shin C-S, Huang B, Cash BA, Bosilovich MG, Mahanama S, Koster RD, Santanello JA, Ek MB, Balsamo G, Dutra E, Lawrence DM (2018) Verification of Land–Atmosphere Coupling in Forecast Models, Reanalyses, and Land Surface Models Using Flux Site Observations. AMS, JHM, February 2018

Wegmann M, Dutra E, Jacobi H-W, Zolina O (2018) Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products. The Cryosphere, 12, 1887–1898, 2018,

Albergel C, Dutra E, Munier S, Calvet J-C, Munoz-Sabater J, Rosnay P de, Balsamo G (2018) ERA-5 and ERA-Interim driven ISBA land surface model simulations: which one performs better?. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3515-3532, 2018,


Leutbecher M, Lock S-J, Ollinaho Pirkka, Lang STK, Balsamo G, Bechtold P, Bonavita M, Christensen HM, Diamantakis M, Dutra E, English S, Fisher M, Forbes RM, Goddard J, Haiden T, Hogan RJ, Juricke S, Lawrence H, MacLead D, Magnusson L, Malardel S, Massart S, Sandu I, Smolarkiewicz PK, Subramanian A, Vitart F, Wedi N, Weisheimer A (2017) Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143: 2315–2339, July 2017 B,

Beljaars A, Dutra E, Balsamo G, Lemarié F (2017) On the numerical stability of surface–atmosphere coupling in weather and climate models. Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 977-989,, 2017.

Wegmann M, Orsolini Y, Dutra E, Bulygina O, Sterin A, Brönnimann S (2017) Eurasian snow depth in long-term climate reanalyses. The Cryosphere, 11, 923-935,, 2017.

Orth R, Dutra E, Trigo IF, Balsamo G (2017) Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2483-2495,, 2017.

Beck HE, van Djik AIJM, de Roo A, Dutra E, Fink G, Orth R, Schellekens J (2017) Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2881–2903, 2017,

Grippa M, Kergoat L, Boone A, Peugeot C, Demarty J, Cappelaere B, Gal L, Hiernaux P, Mougin E, Ducharne A, Dutra E, Anderson M, Hain C, ALMIP2 Working Group (2017) Modeling Surface Runoff and Water Fluxes over Contrasted Soils in the Pastoral Sahel: Evaluation of the ALMIP2 Land Surface Models over the Gourma Region in Mali. AMS, JHM July 2017,

Schellekens J, Dutra E, Torre M, Balsamo G, Dijk A, Weiland FS, Minvielle M, Calvet J-C, DeCharme B, Eisner S, Fink G, Flörke M, Peßenteiner S, Beek R, Polcher J, Beck H, Orth R, Calton B, Burke S, Dorigo W, Weedon GP (2017) A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, 2017,


Agustí-Panareda A, Massart S, Chevallier F, Balsamo G, Boussetta S, Dutra E, Beljaars A (2016) A biogenic CO2 flux adjustment scheme for the mitigation of large-scale biases in global atmospheric CO analyses and forecasts. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10399-10418,

Orth R, Dutra E, Pappenberger F (2016) Improving Weather Predictability by Including Land Surface Model Parameter Uncertainty. AMS MWR April 2016,

Profhomme C, Doblas-Reyes F, Bellprat O, Dutra E (2016) Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. Clim Dyn (2016) 47: 919.

Rodríguez-Fernández NJ, Kerr YH, van der Schalie R, Al-Yaari A, Wigneron J-P, de Jeu R, Richaume P, Dutra E, Mialon A, Drusch M (2016) Long Term Global Surface Soil Moisture Fields Using an SMOS-Trained Neural Network Applied to AMSR-E Data. Remote Sens. 2016, 8(11), 959;

Senan R, Orsolini YJ, Weisheimer A, Vitart F, Balsamo G, Stockdale TN, Dutra E, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Basang D (2016) Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts. Clim Dyn (2016) 47:2709–2725,

Trigg MA, Birch CE, Neal JC, Bates PD, Smith A, Sampson CC, Yamazaki D, Hirabayashi Y, Pappenberger F, Dutra E (2016) The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis. Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 094014,

Zsóter E, Pappenberger F, Smith P, Emmerton RE, Dutra E, Wetterhall F, Richardson D, Bogner K, Balsamo G (2016) Building a Multimodel Flood Prediction System with the TIGGE Archive. AMS, JHM November 2016


Albergel C, Dutra E, Muñoz-Sabater J, Haiden T, Balsamo G, Beljaars A, Isaksen L, de Rosnay P, Sandu I, Wedi N (2015) Soil temperature at ECMWF: An assessment using ground-based observations. J.Geophys.Res.Atmos., 120,1361–1373,

Balsamo G, Albergel C, Beljaars A, Boussetta S, Brun E, Cloke H, Dee D, Dutra E, Muñoz-Sabater J, Pappenberger Florian, de Rosnay P, Stockdale T, (2015) ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389-407, 2015

Boussetta S, Balsamo G, Dutra E, Beljaars A, Albergel C (2015) Assimilation of surface albedo and vegetation states from satellite observations and their impact on numerical weather prediction. Remote Sensing of Environment 163 (2015) 111–126,

Enenkel M, See L, Bonifacio R, Boken V, Chaney N, Vinck P, You L, Dutra E, Anderson M (2015) Drought and food security – Improving decision-support via new technologies and innovative collaboration. Global Food Security 4 (2015) 51–55,

Pappenberger F, Jendritzky G, Staiger H, Dutra E, Di Giuseppe F, Richardson DS, Cloke HL (2015) Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Int J Biometeorol (2015) 59: 311.

Trambauer P, Werner M, Winsemius HC, Maskey S, Dutra E, Uhlenbrook S (2015) Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1695-1711,, 2015.

Wetterhall F, Winsemius HC, Werner H, Pappenberger F (2015) Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577-2586, 2015,

Alexandre M. Ramos, David Barriopedro, Emanuel Dutra (2015) Circulation weather types as a tool in atmospheric, climate, and environmental research. Front. Environ. Sci., 3:44.


Dutra E, Pozzi W, Wetterhall F, Di Giuseppe F, Magnusson L, Naumann G, Barbosa P, Vogt J, Pappenberger F (2014) Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2669-2678, 2014

Dutra E, Wetterhall F, Di Giuseppe F, Naumann G, Barbosa P, Vogt J, Pozzi W, Pappenberger F (2014) Global meteorological drought – Part 1: Probabilistic monitoring. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2657-2667, 2014

Getirana ACV, Dutra E, Guimberteau M, Kam J, Li H-Y, Decharme B, Zhang Z, Ducharne A, Boone A, Balsamo G, Rodell M, Toure AM, Xue Y, Peters-Lidard CD, Kumar SV, Arsenault K, Drapeau G, Leung LR, Ronchail J, Sheffield J (2014) Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble. AMS, JHM December 2014,

Mwangi E, Wetterhall F, Dutra E, Di Giuseppe F, Pappenberger F (2014) Forecasting droughts in East Africa. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 611-620, 2014

Naumann G, Dutra E, Barbosa P, Pappenberger F, Wetterhall F, Vogt JV (2014) Comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple data sets over Africa. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625-1640, 2014

Trambauer P, Dutra E, Maskey S, Werner M, Pappenberger F, van Beek LPH, Uhlenbrook S (2014) Comparison of different evaporation estimates over the African continent. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 193-212, 2014

Winsemius HC, Dutra E, Engelbrecht FA, Garderen EAV, Wetterhall F, Pappenberger F, Werner MGF (2014) The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1525-1538, 2014


Alfieri L, Burek P, Dutra E, Krezminski B, Muraro D, Theilen J, Pappenberger F (2013) GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, 2013

Boussetta S, Balsamo G, Berljaars A, Panareda A-A, Calvet J-C, Jacobs C, van der Hurk B, Viterbo P, Lafont S, Dutra E, Jarlan L, Balzarolo M, Papale D, van der Werf G (2013) Natural land carbon dioxide exchanges in the ECMWF integrated forecasting system: Implementation and offline validation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 5923–5946,

Di Giuseppe F, Molteni F, Dutra E (2013) Real-time correction of ERA-Interim monthly rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 40, 3750–3755,

Dutra E, Di Giuseppe F, Wetterhall F, Pappenberger F (2013) Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2359-2373, 2013

Dutra E, Diamantakis M, Tsonevsky I, Zsoter E, Wetterhall F, Stockdale T, Richardson D, Pappenberger F (2013) The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale. Atmos. Sci. Let.14: 256–262 (2013),

Dutra E, Magnusson L, Wetterhall F, Cloke HL, Balsamo G, Boussetta S, Pappenberger F (2013) The 2010–2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 1720–1729 (2013),

Pozzi W, Sheffield J, Stefanski R, Cripe D, Pulwarty R, Vorgt JV, Heim jr. RR, Brewer MJ, Svoboda M, Westerhoff R, van Djik AIJM, Lloyd-Hughes B, Pappenberger F, Werner M, Dutra E, Wetterhall F, Wagner W, Schubert S, Mo K, Nicholson M, Bettio L, Nunez L, vans Beek R, Beirkens M, de Gonçalves LGG, de Mattos JGZ, Lawford R (2013) Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting. AMS, BAMS June 2013,


Balsamo G, Salgado R, Dutra E, Boussetta S, Stockdale T, Potes M (2012) On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface temperature in a global weather forecasting model. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 64:1, 15829,

Dutra E, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA, Balsamo G (2012) Complexity of Snow Schemes in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Surface Energy and Hydrology. AMS, JHM April 2012,

Pappenberger F, Dutra E, Wetterhall F, Cloke HL (2012) Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4143-4156, 2012

Yamazaki D, Lee H, Alsdorf DE, Dutra E, Kim H, Kanae S, Oki T (2012) Analysis of the water level dynamics simulated by a global river model: A case study in the Amazon River. Water Resour. Res., 48, W09508,


Belo-Pereira M, Dutra E, Viterbo P (2011) Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20101,

Dutra E, Kotlarski S, Viterbo P, Balsamo G, Miranda PMA, Schär C, Bissoli P, Jonas T (2011) Snow cover sensitivity to horizontal resolution, parameterizations, and atmospheric forcing in a land surface model. J. Geophys. Res.,116, D21109,

Dutra E, Scär C, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA (2011) Land-atmosphere coupling associated with snow cover. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38,L15707,


Balsamo G, Dutra E, Stepanenko VM, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA, Mironov D (2010) Deriving an effective lake depth from satellite lake surface temperature data: a feasibility study with MODIS data. Boreal Env. Res. 15:178-190

Dutra E, Balsamo G, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA, Beljaars A, Sch&aulm;r C, Elder K (2010) An Improved Snow Scheme for the ECMWF Land Surface Model: Description and Offline Validation. AMS, JHM August 2010,

Dutra E, Stepanenko VM, Balsamo G, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA, Mironov D, Schär C (2010) An offline study of the impact of lakes on performance of the ECMWF surface scheme. Boreal Env. Res. 15:100-112

Hazeleger W, Severijins C, Semmler T, Ştefănescu S, Yang S, Wang X, Wyser K, Dutra E, Baldasano JM, Bintanja R, Bougeault P, Caballero R, Ekman AML, Christensen JH, van der Hurk B, Jimenez P, Jones C, Kållberg P, Koenig T, ,MacGrath R, Miranda P, van Noije T, Palmer T, Parodi JA, Schimth T, Selten F, Storelvmo T, Sterl A, Tapamo H, Vancoppenolle M, Viterbo P, Willén U (2010) EC-Earth: A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action. AMS, BAMS October 2010,

Peled E, Dutra E, Viterbo P, Angert A (2010) Technical Note: Comparing and ranking soil drought indices performance over Europe, through remote-sensing of vegetation. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 271-277, 2010

Balsamo G, Pappenberger F, Dutra E, Viterbo P, van der Hurk B (2010) A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: a step towards daily water flux prediction in a fully-closed water cycle. Hydrol. Process. 25, 1046–1054 (2011),