Uncertainties in future ozone and PM10 projections over Europe from a regional climate multiphysics ensemble

Jimenez-Guerrero P., Jerez S., Montavez J.P., Trigo R.M.
Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5764-5769, DOI:10.1002/2013GL057403.

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Due to the computational time required for modeling air quality climatologies, the characterization of processes introducing the largest uncertainty in air quality-climate projections is a sound field of research. Here an air quality ensemble is assessed over Europe for present (19712000) and future (20712100, SRES A2) periods to characterize the sensitivity of regional air quality projections to the physics of the regional climate model driving the simulations. The ensemble comprises eight members resulting from combining two options of parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer, cumulus, and microphysics. The differences in the ensemble members (spread) for the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM10) are strongly affected by the physics selected and could be considered as a matter of uncertainty in the change signals. Also, the leading processes causing the largest uncertainties in air quality projections have been identified and are mainly related to the election of the cumulus schemes.