Climate change scenarios in the Azores and Madeira Islands

Santos, F.D., Valente M.A., Miranda P.M., Aguiar A., Azevedo E.B., Tomé A.R., Coelho F.
World Resource Review, 16, 4, 473-491

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A simple parcel model (CIELO) has been used to downscale climate change scenarios for the 21st century, obtained with the HadCM3 GCM, in the Madeira and Azores Islands. The HadCM3 model has been run using the SRES emissions scenarios A2 and B2. CIELO is a relatively simple model, based on the transformations experienced by an air mass ascending a mountain, and simulates the evolution of an air parcel’s physical properties starting from the sea level. There are two free parameters in CIELO regulating the precipitation processes, which have been adjusted initially to the Terceira Island (Azores), using observations. The same set of parameters was used in the S. Miguel Island (Azores). A different set of parameters was applied to Madeira, to take account of the different climate conditions. Preliminary results indicate larger climate changes in Madeira than in the Azores region, with the annual precipitation in Madeira decreasing up to 35% in the 2070-2099 period, when compared to the control period 1961-1990. In this scenario, Madeira Winters become drier, whereas in the Azores they turn wetter. Temperature anomalies are slightly higher in Madeira (less than +3ºC) than in the Azores (less than +2.3ºC).