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Tsunami Propagation Along Tagus Estuary (Lisbon, Portugal) Preliminary Results

Baptista MA, Soares PMM, Miranda JM, Luis JF
Science of Tsunami Hazards, 24:329-338

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Abstract

In this study we present preliminary results of flood calculation along Tagus Estuary, a catastrophic event that happened several times in the past, as described in historical documents, and that constitutes one of the major risk sources for Lisbon coastal area. To model inundation we used Maderís SWAN model for the open ocean propagation with a 2 km grid, and Imamuraís TSUN2 with a 50 m grid covering the entire estuary. The seismic source was computed with the homogeneous elastic half space approach. Modelling results agree with historical reports. Synthetic flood areas correspond to the sites where there are morphological and sedimentary evidences of two known major events that stroke Lisbon: 1531-01-26 and 1755-11-01 tsunamis.