The Dynamics of Patient Visits to a Public Hospital Pediatric Emergency Department: A Time-Series Model

Almeida, Helena Seabra MD; Sousa, Margarida; Mascarenhas, Inęs; Russo, Ana; Barrento, Manuel; Mendes, Manuel; Nogueira, Paulo; Trigo, Ricardo;
Pediatric Emergency Care: September 9, 2020 - Volume Publish Ahead of Print - Issue - doi: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000002235

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Background The overcrowding of emergency departments (EDs) is an increasingly relevant public health problem. The main aims of this study were to identify and analyze temporal periodicities of a self-referred pediatric ED (PED), correlate them with meteorological and calendar variables and build a robust forecasting model. Methods An 8-year administrative data set (2010–2017) of the daily number of admissions to the PED of a public hospital in Lisbon, Portugal, was used (n = 670,379). A time-series model of the daily number of visits was built, including temporal periodicities, the Portuguese school calendar, and a meteorological comfort index (humidex). Results Several temporal cycles were identified: 1 year (peak in January/February related to respiratory infections in younger children and infants), 6 months (peaks in May and October with an increase in the admissions of older children and adolescents with trauma, gastrointestinal infections and atopic symptoms), 4 months (related to annual school vacations), 1 week (lower admission values on Saturday), and half a week (low from Friday to Monday morning). School calendar and humidex were significantly correlated with daily admissions. The model yielded a mean absolute percentage error of 10.7% ± 1.10% when cross-validation was performed for the full data set. Conclusion Although PED visits are multifactorial, they may be predicted and explained by a relatively small number of variables. Such a model may be easily reproduced in different settings and represents a relevant tool to improve quality in EDs through correctly adapting human resources to ED demand.