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The dynamics of patient visits to a public hospital paediatric emergency department: a time-series model

Almeida H.S., Sousa M., Mascarenhas I., Russo A., Barrento M., Mendes M., Nogueira P., Trigo R.M.
Pediatric Emergency Care, 38 (1), p e240-245. DOI: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000002235

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Abstract

Background The overcrowding of emergency departments (EDs) is an increasingly relevant public health problem. The main aims of this study were to identify and analyze temporal periodicities of a self-referred pediatric ED (PED), correlate them with meteorological and calendar variables and build a robust forecasting model. Methods An 8-year administrative data set (20102017) of the daily number of admissions to the PED of a public hospital in Lisbon, Portugal, was used (n = 670,379). A time-series model of the daily number of visits was built, including temporal periodicities, the Portuguese school calendar, and a meteorological comfort index (humidex). Results Several temporal cycles were identified: 1 year (peak in January/February related to respiratory infections in younger children and infants), 6 months (peaks in May and October with an increase in the admissions of older children and adolescents with trauma, gastrointestinal infections and atopic symptoms), 4 months (related to annual school vacations), 1 week (lower admission values on Saturday), and half a week (low from Friday to Monday morning). School calendar and humidex were significantly correlated with daily admissions. The model yielded a mean absolute percentage error of 10.7% 1.10% when cross-validation was performed for the full data set. Conclusion Although PED visits are multifactorial, they may be predicted and explained by a relatively small number of variables. Such a model may be easily reproduced in different settings and represents a relevant tool to improve quality in EDs through correctly adapting human resources to ED demand.