People

Ricardo Trigo

Senior Researcher IDL and Lecturer

Email: rmtrigo@fc.ul.pt

Instituto Dom Luiz
Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
Campo Grande, Edf. C8, Piso 3, Sala 8.3.03
1749-016 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 217500855

Areas of Scientific activity

Climatology, Hydrology, Heatwaves, Droughts, Landslides, Solar variability and volcanic impacts

Publications

2022


Libonati R., Geirinhas J.L., Silva P.S., Dos Santos D.M., Rodrigues J.A., Russo A., Peres L.F., Narcizo L., Gomes M.E., Rodrigues A.P. and DaCamara C.C., Pereira J.M.C., Trigo R.M. (2022) Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 1517, 44-62. DOI:10.1111/nyas.14887


Araújo J.R., Ramos A.M., Soares P.M., Melo R., Oliveira S.C. and Trigo R.M. (2022) Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios. Landslides. 19, 2279–2293 (2022). DOI: 10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7


Lima M.M., Gouveia C.M. and Trigo R.M. (2022) Upper-ocean response to the passage of tropical cyclones in the Azores region. Ocean Science, 18(5), pp.1419-1430. DOI: 10.5194/os-18-1419-2022


González-Cao J., Fernández-Nóvoa D., García-Feal, O., Figueira J.R., Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. and Gómez-Gesteira M. (2022) The Rivillas flood of 5-6 November 1997 (Badajoz, Spain) revisited: An approach based on Iber+ modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 610, p.127883. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127883


Richter N., Russell J.M., Amaral-Zettler L., DeGroff W., Raposeiro P.M., Gonçalves V., de Boer E.J., Pla-Rabes S., Hernández A., Benavente M., Ritter C., Sáez A, Bao R., Trigo R.M., Prego R., Giralt S. (2022) Long-term hydroclimate variability in the sub-tropical North Atlantic and anthropogenic impacts on lake ecosystems: A case study from Flores Island, the Azores. uaternary Science Reviews, 285, p.107525. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107525


González Herrero S., Barriopedro D., Trigo R.M., López Bustins J.A. and Oliva M. (2022) Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula. Commun. Earth Environ. 3, 122. DOI:10.1038/s43247-022-00450-5


Bento V.A., Russo A., Dutra E., Ribeiro A.F., Gouveia C.M. and Trigo R.M. (2022) Persistence versus dynamical seasonal forecasts of cereal crop yields. Scientific Reports, 12(1). 12, 7422. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-11228-2


Geirinhas J.L., Russo A.C., Libonati, R., Miralles D.G., Sousa P.M., Wouters H. and Trigo R.M. (2022) The influence of soil dry-out on the record-breaking hot 2013/2014 summer in Southeast Brazil. Scientific Reports. 12, 5836. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09515-z


Gain, A. K., Bühler, Y., Haegeli, P., Molinari, D., Parise, M., Peres, D. J., Pinto, J. G., Schröter, K., Trigo, R. M., Llasat, M. C., and Kreibich, H. (2022) Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022


Simon A., Plecha S.M., Russo A., Teles-Machado A., Donat M.G., Auger P.A. and Trigo R.M. (2022) Hot and cold marine extreme events in the Mediterranean over the period 1982-2021. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.892201


Almeida H.S., Sousa M., Mascarenhas I., Russo A., Barrento M., Mendes M., Nogueira P., Trigo R.M. (2022) The dynamics of patient visits to a public hospital paediatric emergency department: a time-series model. Pediatric Emergency Care, 38 (1), p e240-245. DOI: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000002235


Libonati R., Geirinhas J.L., Silva P.S., Russo A., Rodrigues J.A., Belém L.B., Nogueira J., Roque F.O., DaCamara C.C., Nunes A.M., Marengo J.A. and Trigo R.M (2022) Assessing the role of compound drought and heatwave events on unprecedented 2020 wildfires in the Pantanal. Environmental Research Letters, 17, p.015005. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac462e


Sousa P.M., Trigo R.M., Russo A., Geirinhas J.L., Rodrigues A., Silva S. and Torres A. (2022) Heat-related mortality amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic. International journal of biometeorology, 66, pages 457–468. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02192-z

2021


Lima M.M., Hurduc A., Ramos A.M. and Trigo R.M. (2021) The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic sector. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, p.1040. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.745115


Raj S., Shukla R., Trigo R.M., Merz B., Rathinasamy M., Ramos A.M. Agarwal A. (2021) Ranking and characterization of precipitation extremes for the past 113 years for Indian western Himalayas. International Journal Climatology. 0899841. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7215


Raposeiro P.M., Hernández A., Pla-Rabes S., Gonçalves V., Bao R., Sáez A., Shanahan T., Benavente M., de Boer E.J., Richter N., Gordon V., Marques H., Sousa P.M, Souto M., Matias M.G., Aguiar N., Pereira C., Ritter C., Rubio M.J., Salcedo M., Vázquez-Loureiro D., Margalef O., Amaral-Zettler L.A., Costa A.C., Hung Y., van Leeuwen J.F.N., Masqué P., Prego R., Ruiz-Fernández A.C., Sanchez-Cabeza J.A., Trigo R.M, Giralt S. (2021) Climate change facilitated the early colonization of the Azores Archipelago during medieval times. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 118, e2108236118. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108236118


van der Schrier G., Allan, R.P. , Osso, A., Sousa P.M., Van de Vyver H., Van Schaeybroeck B., Coscarelli R., Pasqua A.A., Petrucci O., Curley M., Mietus M., Filipiak J., Št?pánek P., Zahradní?ek P., Brázdil R., ?ezní?ková L., van den Besselaar E.J.M., Trigo R. and Aguilar E. (2021) The 1921 European drought: Impacts, reconstruction and drivers. Climate of the Past, 17, 2201-2221. DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021


Bravo-Paredes N., Gallego M.C., Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2021) The catastrophic floods in the Guadiana River basin since 1500 CE. Science of the Total Environment, 797, 149141. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149141


Sousa P., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Woolings T., Trigo R.M. (2021) A new combined detection algorithm for blocking and subtropical ridges. Journal of Climate, 34, 7735-7758. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0658.1


Libonati R., Pereira J.M.C., Da Camara C.C., Peres L.F., Oom D., Rodrigues J.A., Santos F.L.M., Trigo R.M., Gouveia C.M., Machado-Silva F., Enrich-Prast A., Silva J.M.N. (2021) Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon. Scientific Reports 11, 4400 (2021). DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-82158-8


González-Cao J., Fernández-Nóvoa D., García-Feal O., Figueira, J.R., Vaquero J.M, Trigo R.M., Gómez-Gesteira M. (2021) Numerical reconstruction of historical extreme floods: The Guadiana event of 1876. Journal of Hydrology, Vol 599, 2021, 126292. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126292


Pinto M.M., Trigo R.M., Trigo I.F., DaCamara C.C. (2021) A Practical Method for High-Resolution Burned Area Monitoring Using Sentinel-2 and VIIRS. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 1608. DOI: 10.3390/rs13091608


Ramos A.M., Roca R., Soares P.M., Wilson A., Trigo R.M., Ralph M. (2021) Uncertainty in different precipitation products in the case of two atmospheric river events. Environmental Research Letters 16 045012. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe25b


Hernández, A., Cachão M., Sousa P.M., Trigo R.M., Luterbacher J., Vaquero J.M., Freitas. M.C. (2021) External forcing mechanisms controlling the North Atlantic coastal upwelling regime during the mid-Holocene. Geology, v. 49. DOI: doi.org/10.1130/G48112


Liberato M.L.R., Montero I., Gouveia C., Russo A., Ramos A.M. and Trigo R.M. (2021) Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016. Earth Systems Dynamics, 12, 197–210. DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-197-2021


Vicente-Serrano S.M., Domínguez-Castro F., Murphy C., Hannaford J., Reig F., Peña-Angulo D., Tramblay D., Trigo R.M., Mac Donald M., Yolanda-Luna M., Mc Carthy M., Van der Schrier G., Turco M., Camuffo D., Noguera M., García-Herrera R., Becherini F., Valle A.D., Tomas-Burguera M., El Kenawy A. (2021) Long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018). International Journal Climatology, 2021; 41 (Suppl. 1): E690– E717. DOI: 10.1002/joc.6719


Almeida, Helena Seabra MD; Sousa, Margarida; Mascarenhas, Inês; Russo, Ana; Barrento, Manuel; Mendes, Manuel; Nogueira, Paulo; Trigo, Ricardo; (2021) The Dynamics of Patient Visits to a Public Hospital Pediatric Emergency Department: A Time-Series Model. Pediatric Emergency Care: September 9, 2020 - Volume Publish Ahead of Print - Issue - doi: 10.1097/PEC.0000000000002235


Geirinhas J., Russo A., Libonati R., Sousa P.M., Miralles D.G., Trigo R.M. (2021) Recent increasing frequency of compound summer drought and heatwaves in Southeast Brazil. Environmental Research Letters. 16 034036. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0eb

2020


Páscoa P., Gouveia C. M., Russo A. C., Bojariu R., Vicente-Serrano S. M., Trigo R. M. (2020) Drought Impacts on Vegetation in Southeastern Europe. Remote Sensing, 2020, 12(13), 2156


Ruffault J., Curt T., Moron V., Trigo R. M., Mouillot F., Koutsias N., Pimont F., Martin-StPaul N., Barbero R., Dupuy J. L., Russo A., Belhadj-Khedher C. (2020) Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. Scientific Reports (Nature Publisher Group), 2020, 10.1.


Hertig E., Russo A., Trigo R. M. (2020) Heat and Ozone Pollution Waves in Central and South Europe—Characteristics, Weather Types, and Association with Mortality. Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1271


Vieira I., Russo A., Trigo R.M. (2020) Identifying Local-Scale Weather Forcing Conditions Favorable to Generating Iberia’s Largest Fires . Forests 11(5), 547


Geirinhas J.L., Russo A., Libonati R., Trigo R.M., Castro L. C. O., Peres L. F., Magalhães M. A. F. M., Nunes B. (2020) Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. International Journal of Biometeorology


Russo A., Sousa P.M., Durão R.M. Ramos A.M., Salvador P., Linares C., Diaz J., Trigo R.M. (2020) Saharan dust intrusions in the Iberian Peninsula: Predominant synoptic conditions. Science of the Total Environment, 717, 137041, doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137041


Pinto M.M., Libonati R., Trigo R.M., Trigo I.F., DaCamara C.C. (2020) A deep learning approach for mapping and dating burned areas using temporal sequences of satellite images. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 160, 260-274, doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2019.12.014


Rodrigues M., Trigo, R.M., Vega-García C., Cardil A. (2020) Identifying large fire weather typologies in the Iberian Peninsula. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 280, 107789, doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107789


Mellado-Cano J., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R. Trigo R.M. (2020) New observational insights into the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-atlantic sector since 1685. Climate Dynamics, 54, 823–841, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05029-z

2019


Lorente-Plazas R., Montavez J.P., Ramos A.M., Jerez S., Trigo R.M., Jimenez-Guerrero P. (2019) Unusual Atmospheric-River like structres coming from Africa induce extreme precipitation over western Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, doi: http://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031280


Sousa P., Barriopedro D., Ramos A.M., García-Herrera R., Espirito-Santo F., Trigo R.M. (2019) Saharan air intrusions as a relevant mechanism for Iberian heatwaves: The record breaking events of August 2018 and June 2019. Weather and Climate Exetremes, 26, 100224, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100224


Turco M., Jerez S., Augusto S., Tarín-Carrasco P., Ratola N., Jimenez-Guerrero P., Trigo, R.M. (2019) Climate drivers of the 2017 devastating fires in Portugal. Scientific Reports, 9, 1, doi: http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50281-2


Soares P.M.M., Careto J.A.M., Cardoso R.M., Goergen K., Trigo R.M. (2019) Land-Atmosphere coupling regimes in Africa: From model evaluation to projects based on CORDEX-Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 11118-11142, doi: http://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029473


Mellado-Cano J., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R. Trigo R.M., Hernández A (2019) Examining the north atlantic oscillation, east atlantic patter, and jet variability since 1685. Journal of Climate, 32, 6285–6298, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0135.1


El Kenawy, A.M., Lopez-Moreno, McCabe, M.F., Robaa S.M., Domínguez-Castro F., Peña-Gallardo M., Trigo R.M., Hereher M., Al-Awadhi T., Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2019) Daily temperature extremes over Egypt: Spatial patterns, temporal trends, and driving forces. Atmospheric Research, 226, 219-239, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.030


Nunes S.A., DaCamara C.C., Turkman K.F., Trigo R.M., Tukman M.A.A. (2019) Wildire fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1459-1470, doi: http://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019


Naughton F., Costas S., Gomes S.D., Desprat S., Rodrigues T., Sanchez Goñi M.F., Renssen H., Trigo R., Bronk-Ramsey C., Oliveira D., Salgueiro E., Voelker A.H.L., Abrantes F. (2019) Coupled ocean and atmospheric changes during Greenland stadial 1 in southwestern Europe. Quaternary Science Reviews, 212, 108-120, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.03.033


El Kenawy, A.M., McCabe, M.F., Lopez-Moreno, J.I., Hathal Y., Robaa S.M., Al Budeiri A.L., Jadoon K.Z., Abouelmagd A., Eddenjal A., Domínguez-Castro F., Trigo R.M., Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2019) Spatial assessment of the performance of multiple high‐resolution satellite‐based precipitation data sets over the Middle East. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 2522-2543, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5968


Moreno J., Fatela F., Leorri E., Gonçalves M.A, Gómez-Navarro, J.J., Araújo M.F., Freitas M.C., Trigo R.M., Blake W.H., Moreno F. (2019) Foraminiferal evidence of major environmental changes driven by the sun-climate coupling in the western Portuguese coast (14th century to present). Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 218, pp. 106-118, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2018.11.030


Geirinhas J., Trigo R.M., Libonati R., Castro L.C.O., Sousa P.M., Coelho C.A.S., Peres L.F., Magalhães M.A.F.M (2019) Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates. Science of the Total Environment, 650, 796-808, doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.060


Russo A., Gouveia C.M., Dutra E., Soares P.M.M., Trigo R.M. (2019) The synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean. Environmental Research Letters, 14(1), 014011, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf09e


Neves M.C., Jerez S., Trigo R.M. (2019) The response of piezometric levels in Portugal to NAO, EA, and SCAND climate patterns. Journal of Hydrology, 568, 1105-1117, https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.054


Ramos A.M., Blamey R.C., Algarra I., Nieto R., Gimeno L., Tomé R., Reason C.J., Trigo R.M. (2019) From Amazonia to southern Africa: Atmospheric moisture transport through Low Level Jets and Atmospheric Rivers. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1436, 217-230, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13960


Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo and Maria A. A. Turkman (2019) Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal usingmeteorological indices of fire danger. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019


Russo A., Gouveia C.M., Dutra E., Soares P.M.M., Páscoa P., Trigo R.M. (2019) The synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, 17 January 2019, 014011. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf09e

2018


Carrasco VMS, Vaquero JM, Trigo RM, Gallego MC (2018) A Curious History of Sunspot Penumbrae: An Update. Solar Phys (2018) 293:104, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1328-z


Oliveira D, Desprat S, Yin Q, Naughton F, Trigo RM, Rodrigues T, Abrantes F, Goñi MFS (2018) Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Clim Dyn (2018) 51:667–686, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3948-7


Ramos AM, Martins MJ, Tomé R, Trigo RM (2018) Extreme Precipitation Events in Summer in the Iberian Peninsula and Its Relationship With Atmospheric Rivers. Front. Earth Sci., 10 August 2018, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00110


Ramos AM, Trigo RM, Tomé R, Liberato MLR (2018) Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in Extreme Precipitation on the European Macaronesian Islands. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 325, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080325


Mellado-Cano J, Barriopedro D, García-Herrera R, Trigo RM, Álvarez-Castro MC (2018) Euro-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation during the Late Maunder Minimum. JCLI May 2018, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0261.1


Moreno J, Fatela F, Gonçalves MA, Leorri E, Trigo RM, Moreno F, Gómez-Navarro JJ, Brázdil R, Ferreira MJ (2018) Climate reconstruction for the Entre-Douro-e-Minho region (NW Portugal) between AD 1626 and AD 1820: synthesis of viticulture data and foraminiferal evidence. Boreas, https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12331


Russo A, Gouveia CM, Soares PMM, Cardoso RM, Mendes MT, Trigo RM (2018) The unprecedented 2014 Legionnaires’ disease outbreak in Portugal: atmospheric driving mechanisms. Int J Biometeorol (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1520-8


Blamey RC, Ramos AM, Trigo RM, Tomé R, Reason CJC (2018) The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers over the South Atlantic on Winter Rainfall in South Africa. AMS, JHM January 2018, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0111.1


Ruffault J, Curt T, Martin-StPaul NK, Moron V, Trigo RM (2018) Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Volume 18 Issue 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018


Rebelo L, Ramos AM, Pereira S, Trigo RM (2018) Meteorological Driving Mechanisms and Human Impacts of the February 1979 Extreme Hydro-Geomorphological Event in Western Iberia. Water, Volume 10, Issue 4, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040454


Pinto MM, Da Camara CC, Trigo IF, Trigo RM, Turkman KF (2018) Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Volume 18 Issue 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018


Oliva M, Ruiz-Fernandéz J, Barriendos M, Benito G, Cuadrat JM, Domínguez-Castro F, Garcia-Ruiz JM, Giralt S, Gómez-Ortiz A, Hernandéz A, López-Costas O, López-Moreno JI, López-Sáez JA, Martínez-Cortiza A, Moreno A, Prohom M, Saz MA, Serrano E, Tejedor E, Trigo RM, Valero-Garcés B, Vicente-Serrano SM (2018) The Little Ice Age in Iberian mountains . Earth-Science Reviews, Volume 177, Pages 175-208, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EARSCIREV.2017.11.010


Moreira E, Russo A, Trigo RM (2018) Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management. Water, Volume 10, Issue 1, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065


Geirinhas JL, Trigo RM, Libonati R, Coelho CAS,Palmeira AC (2018) Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil. International Journal of Meteorology, Volume 38, Issue 4, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5294


Eiras-Barca J, Ramos AM, Pinto JG, Trigo RM, Liberato MLR, Miguez-Macho G (2018) The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. EGU Earth System Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018


Sánchez-Benítez A, García-Herrera R, Barriopedro D, Sousa PM, Trigo RM (2018) June 2017: The Earliest European Summer Mega-heatwave of Reanalysis Period . AGU Publications, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077253


Sousa PM, Trigo RM, Barriopedro D, Soares PMM, Santos JA (2018) European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns. . Cimate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3620-2

2017


Páscoa P, Gouveia CM, Russo A, Trigo RM (2017) Drought Trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the Last 112 Years. Advances in Meteorology Volume 2017, Article ID 4653126, 13 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4653126


Ordóñez C, Barriopedro D, García-Herrera R, Sousa PM, Schnell JL (2017) Regional responses of surface ozone in Europe to the location of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 17: 3111-3131. doi: 10.5194/acp-17-3111-2017


J. Ruffault, V. Moron, R. M. Trigo, T. Curta (2017) Daily synoptic conditions associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean France: evidence for a wind-driven fire regime. Int. J. Climatol, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4680


Dulce Oliveira, Maria Fernanda Sánchez Goñi, Filipa Naughton, J.M. Polanco-Martínez, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Joan O. Grimalt, Belen Martrat g, Antje H.L. Voelker, Ricardo Trigo, David Hodell, Fátima Abrantes, Stéphanie Desprat (2017) Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial. Quaternary Science Reviews, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.013


M. I. Fernández-Fernández, M. C. Gallego, F. Domínguez-Castro, R. M. Trigo, J. M. Vaquero (2017) The climate in Zafra from 1750 to 1840: temperature indexes from documentary sources. Climate Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1910-7


Pedro M. Sousa, Ricardo M. Trigo, David Barriopedro, Pedro M. M. Soares, Alexandre M. Ramos, Margarida L. R. Liberato (2017) Responses of European precipitation distributions and regimes to different blocking locations. Clim Dyn, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3132-5


Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, Carlos C. Da Camara, Pedro M. Sousa, Ricardo M. Trigo (2017) Assessing the role of drought events on wildfires in the Iberian Peninsula. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.01.021


P. Páscoa, C. M. Gouveia, A. Russo, R. M. Trigo (2017) The role of drought on wheat yield interannual variability in the Iberian Peninsula from 1929 to 2012. Int J Biometeorol, 61:439-451 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-016-1224-x


J.M. Correia, A. Bastos, M.C. Brito, R.M. Trigo (2017) The influence of the main large-scale circulation patterns on wind power production in Portugal. Renewable Energy, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.10.002


Ana C. L. Sá, Akli Benali, Paulo M. Fernandes, Renata M. S. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Michele Salis, Ana Russo, Sonia Jerez, Pedro M. M. Soares, Wilfrid Schroeder, José M.C. Pereira (2017) Evaluating fire growth simulations using satellite active fire data. Remote Sensing of Environment, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.12.023


Marco Turco, Jost von Hardenberg, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale & Ricardo M. Trigo (2017) On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe. Scientific Reports, 7:81. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9


Oliva M, Navarro FJ, Hrbá?ek F, Hernández A, Nývlt D, Pereira P, Ruiz-Fernández J, Trigo R. (2017) Recent regional cooling of the Antarctic Peninsula and its impacts on the cryosphere. Science of the Total Environment. (In press). doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.030


Alexandre M. Ramos, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato (2017) Ranking of multi-day extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal Climatology(online, 2016). doi:10.1002/joc.4726

2016


Gouveia CM, Trigo RM, Begueria S, Vicente-Serrano SM (2016) Drought impacts on vegetation activity in the Mediterranean region: An assessment using remote sensing data and multi-scale drought indicators. Global and Planetary Change 151 (2017) 15–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.011


Dulce Oliveira, Stéphanie Desprat, Teresa Rodrigues, Filipa Naughton, David Hodell, Ricardo Trigo, Marta Ru?no, Cristina Lopes, Fátima Abrantes, Maria Fernanda Sánchez Goni (2016) The complexity of millennial-scale variability in southwestern Europe during MIS 11. Quaternary Research, 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2016.09.002


J. Ruffault, V. Moron, R.M. Trigo, T. Curt (2016) Objective identification of multiple large fire climatologies: an application to a Mediterranean ecosystem. Environ. Res. Lett. 11 075006. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075006


Renata M.S. Pinto, Akli Benali, Ana C. L. Sá, Paulo M. Fernandes, Pedro M. M. Soares, Rita M. Cardoso, Ricardo M. Trigo, José M. C. Pereira (2016) Probabilistic fire spread forecast as a management tool in an operational setting. SpringerPlus 5:1205 doi: 10.1186/s40064-016-2842-9


J. Moreno, F. Fatela, F. Moreno, E. Leorri, R. Taborda, R. Trigo (2016) Grape harvest dates as indicator of spring-summer mean maxima temperature variations in the Minho region (NW of Portugal) since the 19th century. Global and Planetary Change 141 39–53. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.04.003


Akli Benali, Ana R. Ervilha, Ana C.L. Sá, Paulo M. Fernandes, Renata M.S. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, José M.C. Pereira (2016) Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations. Science of the Total Environment 569–570 73–85. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.112


Piero Lionello, Isabel F. Trigo, Victoria Gil, Margarida L. R. Liberato, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Reale, Annalisa Tanzarella, Ricardo M. Trigo, Sven Ulbrich & Uwe Ulbrich (2016) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region: a consensus view among methods with different system identification and tracking criteria. Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 68:1, 29391. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.29391


D. Peña-Angulo, R.M. Trigo, N. Cortesi, J.C. González-Hidalgo (2016) The influence of weather types on the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Research 178–179 217–230. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.022


Russo A., Gouveia C.M., Ilan Levy, Uri Dayan, Jerez S., Mendes M.A., Trigo, R.M. (2016) Coastal recirculation potential affecting air pollutants in Portugal: The role of circulation weather types. Atmospheric Environment .135, 9-19. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.03.039


Liberato M. L. R., Ramos A. M., Gouveia C. M., Sousa P., Russo A., Trigo R.M., Santo F.E. (2017) Exceptionally extreme drought in Madeira Archipelago in 2012: Vegetation impacts and driving conditions. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.08.010


Kurz-Besson C., Lousada J. L., Gaspar M. J., Correia I., Soares P. M. M., Cardoso R. M., Russo A., Varino F., Mériaux C., Trigo R.M. and Gouveia C. M. (2016) Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal (special issue "Tree responses to extreme events"). Front Plant Sci. 2016; 7: 1170. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2016.01170.


Gouveia C.M., Páscoa P., Russo A., Trigo, R.M. (2016) Land degradation assessment over Iberia during 1982-2012. Cuadernos de Investigacion Geografica, 42, 89-112. DOI: 10.18172/cig.2945


Sánchez-López G, Hernández A, Pla-Rabes S, Trigo RM, Toro M, Granados I, Sáez A, Pueyo JJ, Rubio-Inglés MJ, Giralt S. (2016) Climate reconstruction for the last two millennia in central Iberia: The role of East Atlantic (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their interplay over the Iberian Peninsula. Quaternary Science Reviews 149, 135 -150. Doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.07.021


Alexandre M. Ramos, Ricardo Tomé, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, Joaquim G. Pinto (2016) Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL070634.


Luis Gimeno, Francina Dominguez, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Trigo, Anita Drumond, Chris J.C. Reason, Andrea S. Taschetto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Ramesh Kumar, Jose Marengo (2016) Major Mechanisms of Atmospheric Moisture Transport and their Role in Extreme Precipitation Events. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2016. 41:3.1–3.25. doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085558


Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Tomé, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, David A. Lavers (2016) Atmospheric rivers moisture sources from a Lagrangian perspective. Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371–384, 2016. doi:10.5194/esd-7-371-2016


S. Pereira, A. M. Ramos, J. L. Zêzere, R. M. Trigo, J. M. Vaquero (2016) Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371–390, 2016


Pedro M. Sousa, David Barriopedro, Ricardo M. Trigo, Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, K. F. Turkman, Margarida L. R. Liberato (2016) Impact of Euro-Atlantic blocking patterns in Iberia precipitation using a novel high resolution dataset. Climate Dynamics (2016) 46: 2573, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2718-7


Bastos A., Janssens I. A., Gouveia C.M., Trigo R.M., Ciais P., Chevallier F., Penuelas J., Rodenbeck C., Piao S., Friedlingstein P., RunningS.W. (2016) European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:10315 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10315


Gouveia C. M., Bistinas I., Liberato M.L.R., Bastos A., Koutsiasd N., Trigo R. (2016) The outstanding synergy between drought, heatwaves and fuel on the2007 Southern Greece exceptional fire season. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 218–219 (2016) 135–145


Hernández A., Haim Kutiel, Trigo R. M., Valente M. A., Sigró J., Cropper T., and Santo F. E. (2016) New Azores archipelago daily precipitation dataset and its links with large-scale modes of climate variability. Int. J. Climatol. 36: 4439–4454 (2016) DOI: 10.1002/joc.4642

2015


M. I. Fernández-Fernández, M. C. Gallego, F. Domínguez-Castro, R. M. Trigo, J. M. Vaquero (2015) The climate in Zafra from 1750 to 1840: precipitation. Climatic Change, 129:267–280, DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1315-9


N. Kirchner-Bossi, R. García-Herrera, L. Prieto, R. M. Trigo (2015) A long-term perspective of wind power output variability. Int. J. Climatol. 35: 2635–2646. doi: 10.1002/joc.4161


Pedro M. Sousa, Ricardo M. Trigoa, Mário G. Pereira, Joaquín Bedia, Jose M. Gutiérre (2015) Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 202 11–25. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018


L. Gimeno, M. Vázquez, R. Nieto, R. M. Trigo (2015) Atmospheric moisture transport: the bridge between ocean evaporation and Arctic ice melting. Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 583–589, 2015. doi: 10.5194/esd-6-583-2015


Ricardo M. Trigo, Catarina Ramos, Susana S. Pereira, Alexandre M. Ramos, José L. Zêzere, Margarida L.R. Liberato (2015) The deadliest storm of the 20th century striking Portugal: Flood impacts and atmospheric circulation. Journal of Hydrology (2015, in press). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.036


Sánchez-López G., Hernández A., Pla-Rabes S., Toro M., Granados I., Sigró J., Trigo R. M., Rubio-Inglés M. J., Camarero L., Valero-Garcés B., Giralt S. (2015) The effects of the NAO on the ice phenology of Spanish alpine lakes. Climatic Change 130, 101-113. doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1353-y


Hernández A., Trigo R. M., Pla-Rabes S., Blas L., Valero-Garcés, Jerez S., Rico-Herrero M., Vega J. C., Jambrina-Enríquez M., Giralt S. (2015) Sensitivity of two Iberian lakes to North Atlantic atmospheric circulation modes. Climate Dynamics, 45, 3403-3417. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2547-8


Russo A., Gouveia C., Trigo R., Liberato M.L.R., DaCamara C. C. (2015) The influence of circulation weather patterns at different spatial scales on drought variability in the Iberian Peninsula. Front. Environ. Sci. doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00001


Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Liberato M.L.R., Tomé R. (2015) Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2015) Redefining the limit dates for the Maunder Minimum. ScienceDirect, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2014.06.002


Domínguez-Castro F., Ramos A. M., García-Herrera R., Trigo, R. M (2015) Iberian extreme precipitation 1855/1856: an analysis from early instrumental observations and documentary sources. International Journal Climatolology, DOI:10.1002/joc.3973


de Lima M.I.P., Santo F.E., Ramos A.M. , Trigo, R.M. (2015) Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941-2007. Theoretical and Applied Climatology ,DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1079-6

2014


Alexandre Rios-Entenza, Pedro M. M. Soares, Ricardo M. Trigo, Rita M. Cardoso, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho (2014) Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: Spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime. Journal of Geophysical Research. doi: 10.1002/2013JD021274


Russo A., Lind P. G., Raischel F., Trigo R., Mendes M. (2014) Neural network forecast of daily pollution concentration using optimal meteorological data at synoptic and local scales. Atmospheric Pollution Research 6 (2015) 540?549  doi: 10.5094/APR.2015.060


Lionello P., Abrantes F., Gacic M., Planton S., Trigo R., Ulbrich U. (2014) The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts. Reg Environ Change 14:1679–1684 DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0666-0


Cortesi N., Gonzalez-Hidalgo J. C., Trigo R.M., Ramos A. M. (2014) Weather types and spatial variability of precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol. 34: 2661–2677 DOI: 10.1002/joc.3866


Fernández-Fernández M. I., Gallego M. C., Domínguez-Castro F., Trigo R. M., García J. A., Vaquero J. M., Moreno González J. M., Castillo Durán J. (2014) The climate in Zafra from 1750 to 1840: historyand description of weather observations. Climatic Change 126:107–118 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1201-5


Azorin-Molina C., Vicente-Serrano S. M., McVicar T. R., Jerez S., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., López-Moreno Juan-I., Revuelto J., Trigo R. M., Lopez-Bustins J. A., Espírito-Santo F. (2014) Homogenization and Assessment of Observed Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends over Spain and Portugal, 1961–2011*. Journal of climate, 27, 3692–3712, doi: dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00652.1


Vicente-Serrano S. M., Lopez-Moreno Juan-I., Beguería S., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., García-Ruiz J. M., Azorin-Molina C., Morán-Tejeda E., Revuelto J., Trigo R., Coelho F., Espejo F. (2014) Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001


Bastos A., Gouveia C.M., Trigo R.M., Running S.W. (2014) Analysing the spatio-temporal impacts of the 2003 and 2010 extreme heatwaves on plant productivity in Europe. Biogeosciences, 11, 3421-3435


DeSoto, L. and Varino, F. and Andrade, J.P. and Gouveia, C.M. and Campelo, F. and Trigo, R.M. and Nabais, C. (2014) Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea. International Journal of Biometeorology


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2014) Revised Group Sunspot Number for 1640, 1652, and 1741. Solar Physics


Zêzere J.L., Pereira S., Tavares A.O., Bateira C., Trigo R.M., Quaresma I., Santos P.P., Santos M., Verde J. (2014) DISASTER: a GIS database on hydro-geomorphologic disasters in Portugal. Natural Hazards


Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Liberato M. L. R (2014) A ranking of high-resolution daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI: 10.1002/asl2.507


Trigo R.M., Varino F., Ramos A.M., Valente M.A., Zêzere J.L., Vaquero J.M., Gouveia C.M., Russo A. (2014) The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis. Frontiers Environmental Sciences, 2:3, DOI: 10.3389/feart.2014.00003


Santo F.E., de Lima M.I.P., Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M. (2014) Trends in seasonal surface air temperature in mainland Portugal, since 1941. International Journal Climatolology, 34: 1814–1837, doi: 10.1002/joc.3803


Santo F.E., Ramos A.M., de Lima M.I.P., Trigo, R.M. (2014) Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007. Regional Environmental Change, DOI:10.1007/s10113-013-0515-6


Kutiel H., Trigo R.M. (2014) The rainfall regime in Lisbon in the last 150 years. Theoretical and Applied Climatology ,DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1066-y


Russo A., Trigo R.M., Martins H., Mendes M.T. (2014) NO2, PM10 and O3 urban concentrations and its association with circulation weather types in Portugal. Atmospheric Environment, 89, 768-785. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.010 EID: 2-s2.0-84896497817

2013


C. Andrade, J. A. Santos, R. Trigo, J. Corte-Real (2013) 2nd International Conference on Ecohydrology and Climate Change. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1853–1856


S. Jerez, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, J. P. Montávez, R. M. Trigo (2013) Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European aerosol ground levels through local processes: a seasonal model-based assessment using fixed anthropogenic emissions. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11195–11207. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-11195-2013


Jimenez-Guerrero P., Jerez S., Montavez J.P., Trigo R.M. (2013) Uncertainties in future ozone and PM10 projections over Europe from a regional climate multiphysics ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5764-5769, DOI:10.1002/2013GL057403.


Jerez S., Trigo R.M. (2013) Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 044035, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044035


González-Villanueva R., Costas S., Pérez-Arlucea M., Jerez S., Trigo R.M. (2013) Impact of atmospheric circulation patterns on coastal dune dynamics, NW Spain. Geomorphology, 185, 96–109


Trigo R.M., Sousa P., Pereira M., Rasilla D., Gouveia C.M. (2013) Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation Weather Types. International Journal of Climatology,      DOI: 10.1002/joc.3749


Cortesi N., Trigo R.M., Gonzalez-Hidalgo J.C., Ramos A.M. (2013) Modelling monthly precipitation with circulation weather types for a dense network of stations over Iberia. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 665– 678, doi:10.5194/hess-17-665-2013.


Ramos A.M., Cordeiro Pires A., Sousa P.M., Trigo R.M. (2013) The use of circulation weather types to predict upwelling activity along the western Iberian Peninsula coast. Continental Shelf Research, 69, 38:51


Jerez S., Trigo R.M., Vicente-Serrano S.M., Pozo-Vazquez D., Lorente-Plazas R., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Santos-Alamillos F., Montavez J.P. (2013) The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Renewable Energy Resources in Southwestern Europe. Journal off Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52, 2204:2225


Trigo R.M., Añel J., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Gimeno L., Nieto R., Castillo R., Allen M.R., Massey N. (2013) The record Winter drought of 2011-12 in the Iberian Peninsula, in Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9), S41-S45


Trigo R.M., Barriopedro D., A.M. Ramos, Parker D.E., Mühr B., Ehmann C., Bissolli P., Kennedy J.J. (2013) Iberia, in State of the Climate in 2012. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (8), S176-S178


Jerez S., Trigo R.M., Sarsa A., Lorente-Plazas R., Pozo-Vazquez D., P. Jimenez-Guerrero, Montavez J.P. (2013) Spatio-temporal complementarity between solar and wind power in the Iberian Peninsula. Energy Procedia, 20, 48-57


Liberato M.L.R., Pinto J.G., Trigo R.M., Ludwig P., Ordóñez P., Yuen D., Trigo I.F. (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 2239-2251


Bastos A., Running S.W., Gouveia C.M., Trigo R.M. (2013) The global NPP dependence on ENSO: La Niña and the extraordinary year of 2011. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 118,1-9 - PAPER HIGHLIGHTED IN NATURE CC


Gimeno L., Nieto R., Drumond A., Castillo R., Trigo R.M. (2013) Influence of the intensification of the major oceanic moisture sources on continental precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 40,1 - 8, doi:10.1002/grl.50338, 2013


Carrasco V. M. S., Vaquero J. M., Gallego M. C., Trigo R. M. (2013) Forty two years counting spots: Solar observations by D.E. Hadden during 1890-1931 revisited. New Astronomy, 25, 95-102


Domínguez-Castro F., Trigo R. M., Vaquero J. M. (2013) The first meteorological measurements in the Iberian Peninsula: evaluating the storm of November 1724. Climatic Change, 118, 443-455, DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0628-9


Gonzalez-Villanueva R., Costas S., Pérez-Arlucea M., Jerez S., Trigo R. M. (2013) Effect of climate change in the stabilization and prevailing aeolian activity of a coastal dune (Traba, NW Spain). Geomorphology, 185, 96-119


Amraoui M., Liberato M. L. R., Calado T. M., DaCamara C. C., Pinto-Coelho L., Trigo R. M., Gouveia C. M. (2013) Fire activity over Mediterranean Europe based on information from Meteosat-8. Forest Ecology and Management, 294, 62-75, 2013


Bastos A, Trigo RM, Barbosa SM (2013) Discrete wavelet analysis of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Baltic Sea level. Tellus A, 65. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20077


Vicente-Serrano S. M., Gouveia C., Camarero J. J., Beguería S., Trigo R. M., López-Moreno J. I., Azorín-Molina C., Pasho E., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Revuelto J, Morán-Tejeda E., Sanchez-Lorenzo A. (2013) Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes. PNAS 2013 110 (1) 52-57; doi:10.1073/pnas.1207068110

2012


Gimeno L., Stohl A., Trigo R.M., Dominguez F., Yoshimura K., Yu L., Drumond A., Durán-Quesada A. M., Nieto R. (2012) Oceanic and Terrestrial Sources of Continental Precipitation. Rev. Geophys., 50, RG4003, doi:10.1029/2012RG000389.


Fragoso M., Trigo R.M., Pinto J.G., Lopes S., Lopes A., Magro S. (2012) The 20 February 2010 Madeira Flash-floods: Atmospheric controls and extreme rainfall assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-715-2012, 12, 715–730.


Trachte K., Obregón A., Bissolli P., Trigo R., Barriopedro D., Gouveia C. and Parker D.E. (2012) Europe, in State of the Climate in 2011. . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93 (7), S186-S199


Liberato M. L. R., Ramos A. M., Trigo R. M., Trigo I. F., Durán-Quesada A. M., Nieto R., Gimeno L. (2012) Moisture Sources and Large-Scale Dynamics Associated With a Flash Flood Event. Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere, Geophysical Monograph Series. DOI: 10.1029/2012GM001244


Costas S., Jerez S., Trigo R.M., Goble R., Rebelo L. (2012) Sand invasion along the Portuguese coast forced by westerly shifts during cold climate events. Quaternary Science Reviews. Vol. 42, pp 15-28


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2012) A Note on Solar Cycle Length During the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Solar Phys 279:289-294. DOI 10.1007/s11207-012-9964-1


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M., Gallego M.C. (2012) A Simple Method to Check the Reliability of Annual Sunspot Number in the Historical Period 1610-1847. Solar Physics 277:389-395, DOI 10.1007/s11207-011-9901-8


Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2012) Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre- and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences, 12, 3123-3137, 2012, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3123-2012


Farrona A.M.M., Trigo R.M., Gallego M.C., Vaquero J.M. (2012) The meteorological observations of Bento Sanches Dorta, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: 1781-1788. Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0467-8


Barriopedro D., Gouveia C.M., Trigo R.M., Wang L. (2012) The 2009/10 Drought in China: Possible Causes and Impacts on Vegetation. Jounral fo Hydrometeorology, Vol 13. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-11-074.1


Alcoforado M.J., Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M., Taborda J.P. (2012) Early Portuguese meteorological measurements (18th century). Climate of the Past, 8, 353-371, 2012, doi:10.5194/cp-8-353-2012

2011


Maier F., Obregon A., Bissolli P., Kennedy J.J., Parker D.E., Trigo R.M., Barriopedro D.,Gouveia C.M., Sensoy S., Achberger C. (2011) Europe in State of the Climate in 2010. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92 (6), S199-S210


Gimeno L., Trigo R.M., Gómez-Gesteira M. (2011) Regional climate change in the NW Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research Vol. 48: 105-108, 2011. doi: 10.3354/cr01017


Bastos A., Gouveia C.M., DaCamara C.C., Trigo R.M. (2011) Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal. Biogeosciences, 8, 3593-3607, 2011, doi:10.5194/bg-8-3593-2011


Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences


Diaz H.F., Trigo R.M., Hughes M.K. Mann M.E., Xoplaki E., Barriopedro D. (2011) Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in Medieval times revisited. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-10-05003.1., 92, 1487-1500


Gouveia C, Liberato M.L.R., DaCamara C.C., Trigo, R.M., Ramos A.M. (2011) Modelling past and future wine production in the Portuguese Douro Valley. Climate Research (in press)


Barriopedro D., Fisher E., Luterbacher J., Trigo R.M., García-Herrera R. (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science, 322, 220. DOI: 10.1126/science.1201224


Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Santo F.E. (2011) Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal: reporting on recent changes and future scenarios. Climate Research, Vol. 48: 177–192, 2011 doi: 10.3354/cr00934


Liberato M.L.R., Pinto J.G., Trigo I.F., Trigo R.M. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather, DOI: 10.1002/wea.755


Ramos A.M., Ramos R., Sousa P., Trigo R.M., Janeira M., Prior V. (2011) Cloud to ground lightning activity over Portugal and its association with Circulation Weather Types. Atmospheric Research, 101, 84-101, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.014


Vicente-Serrano S.M., Trigo, R.M., Liberato M.L.R., López-Moreno J.I., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Beguería S., Morán-Tejeda H., El Kenawy A. (2011) Extreme winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula, 2010: anomalies, driving mechanisms and future projections. Climate Research , 46, 51-65, doi: 10.3354/cr00977


Compo G.P., Whitaker J.S., Sardeshmukh P.D., Matsui N., Allan R.J., Yin X., Gleason B.E., Vose R.S., Rutledge G., Bessemoulin P., Brönnimann S., Brunet M., Crouthamel R.I., Grant A.N., Groisman P.Y., Jones P.D., Kruk M.C., Kruger A.C., Marshall G.J., Maugeri M.,Mok H.Y., Nordli Ø., Ross T.F., Trigo R.M., Wang X.L., Woodruff S.D., Worley S.J. (2011) The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1-28, DOI:10.1002/qj.776


Gallego M.C., Trigo R.M., Vaquero J.M., Brunet M., García J.A., Sigró J., and Valente M.A. (2011) Trends in frequency indices of daily precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 116, D02109, doi:10.1029/2010JD014255


Sousa P., Trigo R.M., Aizpurua P., Nieto R., Gimeno L., Garcia-Herrera R. (2011) Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 33-51, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011


Ribeiro P., Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2011) Geomagnetic records of Carrington's Storm from Guatemala. Journal of Atmosphere and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 73, 308-315, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.12.017

2010


Russo A.; Soares A.; Pereira M.J., Trigo R.M. (2010) Joint Space-Time Geostatistical Model for Air Quality Surveillance/Monitoring System. Geoenv Vii - Geostatistics For Environmental Applications Volume: 16 Pages: 173-185. DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-2322-3_16


Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., González-Rouco J.F., Trigo R.M. (2010) Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part II: model simulations. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0766-6


Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Trigo R.M. (2010) Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part I: a novel detection scheme. Climate Dynamics , DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0767-5


Drumond A., Nieto R., Trigo R.M., Ambrizzi T., Sousa E. Gimeno L. (2010) A Lagrangian identification of moisture sources affecting Northeastern Brazil during its pre-rainy and rainy seasons. PLoS ONE, 5 (6), e11205. doi:10:1371/journal.pone.0011205


Gimeno L. Drumond A., Nieto R., Trigo R.M., Sthol A. (2010) On the origin of continental precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13804, doi:10.1029/2010GL04371


Trigo R.M., Barriopedro D., Gouveia C, Obregón A., Bissolli P., Kennedy J.J., Parker D.E. (2010) Iberia, in State of the Climate in 2009. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, s165-s167


Trigo R.M., Gouveia C., Barriopedro D. (2010) The intense 2007-2009 drought in the Fertile Crescent: Impacts and associated atmospheric circulation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150, 1245-1257


Gámiz-Fortis S., Esteban-Parra MJ., Trigo R.M., Castro-Diez Y. (2010) Potential predictability of an Iberian river flow based on its relationship with previous winter global SST. Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.010, 385, 343-349


Gouveia C., DaCamara C.C, Trigo R.M. (2010) Post fire vegetation recovery in Portugal based on SPOT-VEGETATION data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 673-684


Gimeno L., Nieto R., Trigo R.M. , Vicente-Serrano S.M, Lopes-Moreno J.I. (2010) Where does the Iberian Peninsula moisture come from? An answer based on a Lagrangian approach. Journal of Hydrometeorology, DOI: 10.1175/2009JHM1182.1, 11, 421-436


García-Herrera R., Díaz J., Trigo R.M., Luterbacher J., Ficher E. (2010) A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, 40, 267 - 306


Trigo R.M., Vaquero J.M., Stothers R. B. (2010) Witnessing the impact of 1783-1784 Laki eruption in the Southern Hemisphere. Climatic Change, 99, 535-546, DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9676-1


Fragoso M., Trigo R.M., Zêzere L., Valente M.A. (2010) The exceptional rainfall episode registered in Lisbon in 18 February 2008. Weather, 65, 31-35


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M., Vazquez M., Gallego M.C. (2010) 155-day Periodicity in solar cycles 3 and 4. New Astronomy, 15, 385-391

2009


Trigo R.M., Ramos A. M., Nogueira P., Santos F.D., Garcia-Herrera R., Gouveia C. and Santo F.E. (2009) Evaluating the impact of extreme temperature based indices in the 2003 heatwave excessive mortality in Portugal. Environmental Science & Policy, 12, 844 - 854


Damião M.C.M., Cavalcanti I.F.A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C., Aragão M.R.S. (2009) Episódios de bloqueios no hemisfério Sul: comparação entre reanalises do NCEP/NCAR e modelo HadCM3. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 24, 3, 262-275


Trigo R.M., Barriopedro D., Gouveia C, Obregón A., Bissolli P., Kennedy J.J., Parker D.E. (2009) Iberia, in State of the Climate in 2008. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, s149-s150


Demuzere M., Trigo R.M., Vila-Guerau de Arellano J., van Lipzig N.P.N. (2009) The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O3 and PM10 levels at a rural mid-latitude site. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 2695-2714


Gouveia C., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2009) Drought and Vegetation Stress Monitoring in Portugal using Satellite Data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9, 1-11


Trigo R.M., Vaquero J.M, Alcoforado M.J., Barriendos M., Taborda J., Garcia-Herrera R., Luterbacher J. (2009) Iberia in 1816, the year without a summer. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 99-115, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1693

2008


Russo A., Soares A., Pereira M.J., Trigo, R.M. (2008) Geostatistical model for air quality surveillance/monitoring.. in Ortiz, J.M., Emery, X. (eds.), Geostatistics Santiago 2008, University of Chile - Santiago, Chile, pp. 841-850.


Russo A., Trigo R., Soares A. (2008) Stochastic modelling applied to air quality space-time characterization. . geoENV VI-Geostatistics for Environmental Applications. Soares A., Pereira M.J., Dimitrakopoulos R. (Eds.). Springer, 83–93.


Damião M.C.M., Trigo R.M., Cavalcanti I.F.A. and DaCamara C.C. (2008) Blocking episodes in the Southern Hemisphere: Impact on the climate of adjacent continental areas. Global fire activity patterns (1996-2006) and climatic influence: an analysis using the World Fire Atlas


Gimeno L., García-Herrera R., Trigo R.M. (2008) Trends and directions of climate research. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, ix–xi, doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.020


Nieto R., Sprenger M., Wernil H., Trigo R.M., Gimeno L. (2008) Identification and Climatology of Cutoff Lows near the Tropopause. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 256–290, doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.016


Trigo R.M., Valente M.A., Trigo I.F., Miranda M., Ramos A.M., Paredes D., García-Herrera R. (2008) The Impact of North Atlantic Wind and Cyclone Trends on European Precipitation and Significant Wave Height in the Atlantic. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 212-234, doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.014


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2008) Predictions of Solar Cycle Amplitude using Solar Cycle Length: fact or artefact?. Solar Physics, 250, 199-206


Trigo R.M., Gouveia C, Garcia-Herrera R. Obregón A., Bissolli P., Kennedy J.J., Parker D.E. and Pir (2008) Iberia, in State of the Climate in 2007. Arguez, A., ed., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, s147-s149


Vaquero J.M., Valente M.A., Trigo R.M., Ribeiro P., Gallego M.C. (2008) The 1870 Space Weather Event from South-west Europe. Journal of Geophysical Reseach - Space Physics , 113, A08230


Andrade C., Trigo R.M., Freitas M.C., Gallego M.C., Borges P., Ramos A.M. (2008) Comparing Historic Records of Storm frequency and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) chronology for the Azores region. The Holocene, 18, 745-754


The role of the Atlantic summer and autumn SSTs on the predictability of the winter Iberian Peninsul (2008) Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part 1: interannual predictability. Journal of Climate, 21, 2484-2502, DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1774.1


Gámis-Fortis S., Pozo-Vazquez D. Trigo R.M., Castro-Diez Y. (2008) Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part 2: seasonal predictability. Journal of Climate, 21, 2503-2518, DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1775.1


Nieto R., Ribera P., Trigo R.M. , Gallego D., Gimeno L. (2008) Dynamic identification of moisture sources in the Orinoco Basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53, 602-617


Zêzere J.L., Trigo R.M., Oliveira S.C., Garcia R.A.C, Fragoso M. (2008) Rainfal triggered Landslides ocurred in Lisbon region in 2006: validation of regional rainfall thresholds and relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8, 483-499


Gouveia C., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C., Libonati R., Pereira J.M.C. (2008) The North Atlantic Oscillation and European vegetation dynamics. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1682


Nieto R., Trigo R.M., Gimeno L. (2008) Potential outflows pathways for Iberian atmospheric middle-lived pollution. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 18-22; doi: 10.2174/1874282300802010018


Le Page Y., Pereira J. M. C., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C., Oom D., Mota B. (2008) Global fire activity patterns (1996-2006) and climatic influence: an analysis using the World Fire Atlas. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1911-1924


Trigo R.M., Vaquero J.M. (2008) An unsung hero. Astronomy & Geophysics, 49, 2.14-2.16


Marques R., Zezere J.L., Trigo R.M., Gaspar J.L., Trigo I.F. (2008) Rainfall patterns and critical values associated with landslides in Povoação County (São Miguel Island, Azores): relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation). Hydrological Processes, 22, 478-494, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6879

2007


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M., Gallego M.C. (2007) Sporadic Aurora from Spain. Earth Planets Space, Vol 59, e40-e51


Vaquero J.M., Gallego M.C.,Trigo R.M. (2007) The sunspot numbers during 1736-1739 revisited. Advances Space Research, 40, 1895-1903, DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2007.02.097


Trigo R.M., Garcia-Herrera R., Paredes D., Ramos A.M. (2007) Iberia, in State of the Climate in 2006. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, S106-S107


Garcia-Herrera R., Paredes D., Trigo R.M., Trigo I.F., Hernández H., Barriopedro D., Mendes M.T. (2007) The outstanding 2004-2005 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation. Journal ofHidrometeorology, 8, 483-498


Gimeno L., Trigo R.M. , Ribera P., Garcia J.A. (2007) Editorial: Special issue on cut-off low systems (COL). Meteorological and Atmospheric Physics. 96, 1-2, DOI 10.1007/s00703-006-0216-5


Gimeno L., Nieto R., Trigo R.M. (2007) Decay of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex and the occurrence of cut-off low systems: an exploratory study. Meteorological and Atmospheric Physics. 96, 21-28, DOI 10.1007/s00703-006-0218-3


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M., Gallego M.C., Moreno-Corral M.A. (2007) Two early sunspots observers: Teodoro de Almeida and José Antonio Alzate. Solar Physics, 240, 165-175, DOI 10.1007/s11207-006-0264-5


Nieto R., Gimeno L., Gallego D., Trigo R.M. (2007) Contribution to the moisture budget of airmasses over Iceland. Meteorologische Zeitschrift , 16, 37-44


Rodrigo F.S, Trigo R.M. (2007) Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. International Journal of Climatology. 27: 513-529, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1409

2006


Trigo R.M., Pereira J.M.C., Pereira M.G., Mota B., Calado M.T., DaCamara C.C., Santo F.E. (2006) Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal. International Journal of Climatology 26 (13): 1741-1757 NOV 15


Vaquero J.M., Gallego M.C., Trigo R.M., Sánchez-Bajo F., Cancillo M.L. and García J.A. (2006) A new reconstruction of total solar Irradiance since 1832. Atmosfera 19, 267-274


Nieto R., Gimeno L., Trigo R.M. (2006) A Lagrangian identification of major sources of Sahel moisture. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L18707, doi:10.1029/2006GL027232


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2006) Results of Geomagnetic Observations in Central Africa by Portuguese Explorers during 1877-1885. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 157; 8-15, doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2006.03.012


Trigo, R.M., R. Garcia-Herrera, and D. Paredes (2006) Iberia. In State of the Climate in 2005. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 87, Issue 6, pp. S83-S85


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2006) Identification of possible intense historical solar storms during the years 1781-1788 inferred from auroras and geomagnetic observations in Rio de Janeiro. Solar Physics, 235; 419-432, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-006-0024-6


Paredes D., Trigo, R.M., Garcia-Herrera R., Trigo, I.F. (2006) Understanding precipitation changes in Iberia in early Spring: weather typing and storm-tracking approaches. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7, 101-113


Díaz J, García-Herrera R., Trigo R.M., Linares C., Valente M.A., Hernadéz E. (2006) The impact of summer 2003 heat wave in Iberia: how should we measure it?. International Journal of Biometeorology, 50, 159-166, DOI: 10.1007/s00484-005-0005-8

2005


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2005) Results of the Rio de Janeiro magnetic observations 1781-1788. AnnalesGeophysicae, 23, 1881-1887


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M. (2005) Auroras observed in Portugal in late 18th century obtained from printed and manuscript meteorological observations. Solar Physics, 231, 157-165, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-005-1583-7


Damião M.C.M.., Trigo R.M., Cavalcanti I.F.A. and DaCamara C.C. (2005) Climatologia de bloqueios sobre o Oceano Pacífico Sul: período de 1960 a 2000. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia,20(2), 175-190.


Trigo R.M., Zêzere J.L., Rodrigues M.L., Trigo I.F. (2005) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on rainfall triggering of Landslides near Lisbon. Natural Hazards, 36, 331-354, DOI 10.1007/s11069-005-1709-0.


Trigo R.M., García-Herrera R., Díaz J., Trigo I.F., Valente M.A. (2005) How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France?. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L10701, doi:10.1029/2005GL022410


Zêzere J.L., Trigo R.M., Trigo I.F. (2005) Shallow and deep Landslides induced by rainfall in the Lisbon region (Portugal): assesement of relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences , 5, 331-344.


Pereira M.G., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C., Pereira J.M.C., Leite .S.M. (2005) Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 129, 11-25


García-Herrera R., Díaz J., Trigo R.M., Hernandez E. (2005) Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions. Annales Geophysicae , 23, 239-251


Vaquero J.M., Trigo R.M., Gallego M.C. (2005) A "lost" sunspot observation in 1785. AstronomischeNachricht . 326, 112-114.

2002 - 2004


Trigo R.M., Trigo I.F., DaCamara C.C., Osborn T.J. (2004) Climate impact of the European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Climate Dynamics, 23 (1): 17-28


Díaz J., Linares C., López C., García-Herrera R., Trigo R.M. (2004) Relationship between Environmental Factors and Infant Mortality in Madrid, 1986-1997. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine 6 (8): 768-774


Trigo R.M., Pozo-Vazquez D., Osborn T.J, Castro-Diez Y., Gámis-Fortis S., Esteban-Parra M.J. (2004) North Atlantic Oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. Int J of Climatology. 24, 925-944


Trigo R.M., Osborn T.J., Corte-Real J.M. (2002) The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Climate Research, 20, 9-17

2001 and prior


Trigo R.M., Palutikof J.P. (2001) Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques. Journal of Climate, 14, 4422-4446


Santos C.A.G, Galvão C.O., Suzuki K., Trigo R.M. (2001) Matsuyama city raifall data analysis using Wavelet transform. Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE. 45, 211-216


Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2000) Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581


Osborn T.J., Briffa K. R., Tett S.F.B., Jones P.D. and Trigo R.M. (1999) Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 15, 685-702


Trigo R.M., Palutikof J.P. (1999) Simulation of daily temperatures for climate change scenarios over Portugal: a neural network model approach. Climate Research, 13, 45-59